Tropical Storm Season Underway!

08/27/2015

While the tropical storm season begins June 1, it really seems to kick in about the time the kids head back to school.

The latest, Tropical Storm Erika threatens Southeast U.S. coast and the gulf.

At this time though, Fairrington has NOT experienced any carrier delays. Fairrington will alert clients if specific freight is impacted or at risk.

However, we all know things can change quickly though. Having a handle on the weather patterns help all of us anticipate changes. Below are excerpts from Weather.com that highlight the extent of our first major storm.

More details… An Uncertain Future: Bahamas, U.S. Threat?

Beyond that, the forecast has a large amount of uncertainty, due the nature of the upper-level steering flow near the eastern U.S. next week.

Assuming Erika survives the hostile environment over the eastern Caribbean the next few days, the steering pattern and a more conducive environment for strengthening are more troubling for the Bahamas and the Southeast Coast.

The current sharp southward dip in the jet stream in the East responsible for the cool, dry air in the Midwest and Northeast will be replaced by a northward-migrating jet into eastern Canada and northern New England. Any leftover remnant of that previous southward dip will be much weaker and farther west over the western Gulf of Mexico or southern U.S.

Coupled with the Bermuda high setting up southwest of Bermuda, an alley appears to be clearing for Erika — assuming it survives — to track toward or near the Florida peninsula or Southeast U.S. coast early-mid next week.

Furthermore, an environment of less wind shear and warm water may allow Erika to strengthen near the central or northwest Bahamas later this weekend into early next week.

For now, potential impacts in the Bahamas from Erika are focusing on Saturday (southeast) and Sunday-Monday (northwest).

(FORECAST: Nassau | Turks & Caicos)

The potential U.S. impact remains very uncertain. Here are the two most possible scenarios:

  • If Erika takes a more westward path, along the western edge of the forecast cone, it could move inland over the southern Florida peninsula later Sunday into Monday. In this scenario, Erika would have less time to strengthen over the warm water near the Bahamas before moving inland, and would primarily be a heavy rain threat over the Florida peninsula.
  • (FORECAST: MiamiDaytona Beach)
  • Erika may, however, remain east of the Florida peninsula, and instead track north toward coast of South Carolina or North Carolina in the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe. With a track over the warm Gulf Stream, Erika would most likely strengthen to a hurricane in this scenario.While unlikely at this time, we also can’t rule out a sharp enough northeast turn of Erika to keep the center off the Southeast coast next week. The average forecast track error of a National Hurricane Center five-day forecast is about 241 statute miles. Also, the average forecast intensity error of an NHC five-day forecast is 18 miles per hour.
  • All interests in The Bahamas and the southeast United States from the Florida Keys to the Outer Banks of North Carolina should continue to monitor the progress of Erika.
  • Keep in mind we’re still several days out before a potential Erika flirtation with the southeast U.S.
  • (FORECAST: Charleston | Myrtle Beach | Wilmington)